This week has been, by the standards of Brexit events, relatively quiet as the negotiations carry on behind closed doors. I want to take advantage of this to run through why the Northern Irish border is proving so challenging. There has been a lot of ink spilt on this but most of it is assertion rather than an actual explanation of the issues we face.
The problem starts with Brexiters demanding that we leave the Single Market and have no Customs union with the EU. Without this, there would be no issue.Read more
There is now less than one year to stop Brexit. In the first Scotland in Europe update after the 2016 EU Referendum, I said that “until such time as we are no longer part of the EU, I remain your Member of the European Parliament and I have a job to do.” I stand by that. Scotland voted to remain and I will continue to represent the people of Scotland in the challenging weeks and months ahead.
We know that Brexit will damage our economy and our society. We know those who advocated Leave never had a plan and that what ideas they had have been exposed as undeliverable or flat out lies. We know that many people voted for their promises in good faith and are now wondering what will happen.Read more
This week the European Parliament agreed its position on the future EU-UK relationship by 554 votes to 110 with 51 abstentions. With a heavy heart I supported the motion as it is a rational response to the self-imposed red lines of the UK Government. The future we face is pretty bleak and is not one Scotland wants.
The resolution sets out Parliament’s input ahead of 22-23 March summit of EU Council when it is expected that guidelines for negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU will be approved. Any deal with the UK will require the approval of the European Parliament. It has been proposed that this relationship could be based on four pillars:
- trade and economic relations (FTA),
- internal security,
- cooperation in foreign policy and defence and
- thematic cooperation, for example on cross-border research and innovation projects.
The resolution stresses the importance of the integrity of the Single Market with its binding common rules, common institutions and common supervisory, enforcement and adjudicatory mechanisms. This means that even closely-aligned non-EU countries with identical legislation cannot enjoy the same rights, benefits or market access to those of EU member states. If you want to read the position in full, just click here:
You can also see my speech in the debate here:
The EU has spelled out what the UK has failed to. The ridiculous red lines set out by Theresa May last week, designed to appease the Brexit ultras of the Tory party, mean that we can – at best – expect a Canada style Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU after Brexit. The full Council guidelines laying this out can be read here.
As Kirsty Hughes of the SCER notes in her excellent assessment: “Estimates of what impact a Canada-style free trade deal could have on UK-EU trade, suggest a 35% drop in goods trade and a massive 61% drop in services trade – adding up to a 45% drop in trade overall.”
This will be hugely damaging for both Scotland and the UK. The UK Government’s own figures show this and, now that their analysis has been released by the House of Commons Exiting the EU Committee, we can all see that all Brexit scenarios are damaging. The current plan is the second worst of all the options.
Despite this, some Brexiters still keep threating a ‘no deal’ which is even worse!Read more
It has been busier than normal this week and that is before anybody mentions the weather. I hope that everyone is staying safe and warm back in Scotland as I sit in Brussels waiting for a flight back home.
The most important development here in Brussels was the Commission’s release of the draft Withdrawal Agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom. This covers citizens' rights, other separation issues such as goods placed on the market before the withdrawal date, the financial settlement, transitional arrangements and a protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.
The UK could have produced such a text but has not. Meanwhile, the EU, knowing that time is of the essence, has produced one. It is not a final text, but it is a good start going further on citizens’ rights than the UK has and crucially it provides a solution to the issues surrounding the Irish border. Namely, it would keep Northern Ireland in the EU Customs Union and large amounts of the Single Market.
To be clear, this solution is only used if the UK doesn’t produce a solution of its own that works. That is what was promised in December and what the UK Government has failed to deliver thus far. Any outcome that creates a border is unthinkable and would jeopardise twenty years of peace. The full text of the draft, should you want a read, is available here:Read more
The ever-expanding list of things that the Brexit Ultras blame for the imminent failure of Brexit (the EU, Ireland, judges, Remainers, academics, experts, civil servants, etc.) gained its most dangerous and indeed sinister new entry this week. Several Ultras have launched what looks suspiciously like a co-ordinated attack on the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) itself.
The reason is as transparent as it is grubby and short sighted. They have worked out, as I have said before, that the GFA scuppers their plans for a harder-than hard Brexit, because it requires an invisible border across the island of Ireland.Read more
I, and other members of the SNP, have for many years called upon the UK Government to rethink their migration policy. It has divided families, callously rejected pleas for asylum from some of the world’s most vulnerable people and I am increasingly concerned that it will be extended to include EEA nationals. As this week’s Home Affairs Committee report stated:
“Over recent years the Government has increasingly chosen to outsource much of the enforcement function [of immigration law] to employers, educators, landlords and providers of public services under the policy known as the ‘hostile environment’… We find it unacceptable that the Government has not yet made any assessment of the effectiveness of the policy and call on them urgently to do so.”
It is abhorrent that this system exists in the first place, but to bring another 3 million citizens under its remit is unthinkable. As Ian Dunt wrote this week, this shows there is nothing liberal about Brexit – despite the assertions of Boris Johnson – and the so-called ‘Lexiteers’ will be sorely disappointed by their choice. His column is well worth a read:Read more
This week we have finally found out what the UK Government thinks Brexit is going to cost Scotland, and their figures almost mirror those that the Scottish Government came up with. There is no good economic news in Brexit: any outcome will make you, your family and your community poorer. We stand to lose from 2.5% to 9% GDP over 15 years depending on how hard a Brexit is inflicted on Scotland. The full regional breakdown can be read here:
This is why Scotland must stay in the Single Market and Customs Union to minimise the damage caused by leaving the EU. If a special status can be considered for Northern Ireland, as today’s announcements from the EU reveal, then it surely can for Scotland as well. You can read more about this here:
This week kicked off with Alberto Nardelli of Buzzfeed publishing an important article containing a leaked version of the UK Government’s Brexit impact analysis.
The figures are stark. If we crash out with no deal, growth will be reduced by 8%; if we leave with a Canada style deal, growth will be cut by 5%; if we remain in the single market, growth will be cut by 2%. Anybody paying attention will notice these are remarkably similar to the figures produced by the Scottish Government. As we have consistently said – if Brexit is to happen – the ‘least bad’ option is to keep membership of the Single Market and Customs Union.
The Tory Brexiteers are of course outraged, and (in between accusing the Civil Service of lying) have descended into another week of infighting. Whilst they work out their differences, it is worth having a brief stocktake of where we are on the only stage that matters: the actual negotiations in Brussels which will recommence next week.Read more
This week has been a little quieter than last as the politicians and civil servants in Brussels begin to get ready for the next few months. Channel 4 released a draft of the EU’s negotiating guidelines for the Brexit transition:
There are no surprises here for anyone who has been paying attention. As I have said before, the fantasies of Leave supporters are going to have a hard collision with reality, this document proves that in black and white for all to see. The EU position has always been - and continues to be - clear, pragmatic and consistent. Brexit is a British problem, not a European one, and the priority of all the other member states is the coherence of the bloc as a whole.Read more